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The QA championships can take 4 years. Lets say that the probability of this problem happpening again is 12.5% in any year. What are the odds of the next QA championship being cancelled before completion? That would require 4 years without tournaments being cancelled.
(0.875)^4 = 0.59
This quick calculation show there is a 40% chance that the next QA Championship will be cancelled.
In addition to answerinig this question I hope to stimulate a discussion from our math champions. I kept my calculation brief and crude so there would be room for discussion. I eagerly wait for replies especially from
RICHERBY
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A bit dramatic Phys!
For one thing, the average Anniversary tourney (they are not championships) takes 2.24 years. More importantly, where did you pull the 12.5% from? One event does not create a pattern. 
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This site has been here for 8 years. There has been 1 event in 8 years that cuased all tournamnets to be cancelled. 1/8=12.5% one event does not make a pattern. My calculation requires "What is the chance that all tournaments will be cancelled duriing a 12 month span. If you have a better guess than 12.5 that goes in the parenthesis (1-your guess). 2.24 replaces my 4
(87.5)^2.24= 74%
Lorfman said goodbye. If he was sure that no more tournaments would be cancelled he might not have said good bye.
The many players bemoan their tournmants that were cancelled. A similiar calculation could be done for other tournaments. A reasonable option would be to play an auto master instead of auto open becuase the master tournament will be cancelled.
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Yes, 0.875^2.24 gives you a probability ... however this number is almost meaningless. I could be wrong but I believe that the usefulness of any probability calculation very much depends on how much data is available. Having only one datum makes the result insignificant. 
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My calculation of 74% is a start. I did not include error. given only one data point 1 cancelled event in 8 years the error is large. But I think most would agree that what ever happened could happen again. I am confident that the chance of next QA Anniversary tournament being cancelled is between 10% and 50%
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If it happened once, it’ll probably happen again. If it’s never happened, at some point it probably will. When you go outside either you will get struck by lightning or you won’t so that means there’s a 50% chance you will get struck. Am I correct on this?!
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